Are our institutions and governance structures ready for the close of the Holocene?!

I thought I would share this article with you, from the LSE blog.

I must admit that I find it both ironic and deeply frustrating that we are about to destabilise, through our own acts and omissions (should that be emissions?!!), one of the most stable climatic periods of many millennia!

Our actions in burning fossil fuels, built up under our feet over hundreds of thousands of years, allied to profligate use of resources, for nothing more than a tenuous profit, is about to destabilise this harmonious epoch.

The burning of so much fossil fuel in such a short space of time, has released the locked up carbon and set in train dramatic changes that are staring to manifest themselves now in changes to our climate. But temperatures are running behind the curve of CO2 emissions and there will be an acceleration, leading to changes that we probably aren’t prepared for.

The blog realises our shortcomings at a social, institutional and economic level and discusses the profound impacts that they are totally unprepared to face!

Foresight on these issues, would predicate toward some form of global governance and a culture change toward a much less hierarchical and more cooperative structure.

Adaptation may well not be a case of cost benefit, but instead could be blind panic in the face of adversity and necessity. So many of the governance systems and ways of life that we take for granted are but the tiniest dot in geological terms. We would do well to think of these things as being very ephemeral, paper thin veils behind which we live and which, will be exposed by such profound change!

2015 preview.

Hello,

A very warm welcome and best wishes for the New Year!

In time honoured fashion, I would like to take an early opportunity to look forward into next year. To avoid this becoming a rambling diatribe, I intend to cover a few topic headings of interest to me and see what turns out to be correct, or not!

Energy
The current price war taking place in the oil supply market has been a bonus for big users of oil and has certainly helped to stave off a slow down in a number of developed countries! The flip side of this, is that oil producing states are now seriously starting to feel the squeeze, with many only breaking even or worse on the more difficult oil fields..

 This has numerous impacts, not least the black hole created in tax revenues (UK Exchequer is likely to face a shortfall of around £6bn), which are likely to add to the current woes of austerity. It has also impacted on share prices, a worrying trend for investors and pension funds (is this a sign of the carbon bubble about to burst?).

One doubled edged consequence could be that investment will dry up for exploration and development of smaller fields and unconventional oil and gas? This could be a great opportunity for a switch to investment in renewables!  If this were the case, it might be that new oil will fail to come on line, creating both a shortfall in supply and a gap that can be filled by renewable energy. In reality, this could indicate 'peak oil' as investment declines and carbon pricing could also play a part in an overall decline.

My predictions are as follows:

• Oil prices will remain low into 2015,' but lack of investment could create future shortages, so prices will go back up. This may not be soon enough or high enough however,  to return to current levels of supply. In which case, renewables are likely to fill the gap (possible hydrogen economy)!
• I think carbon pricing on a global scale will become more likely, Paris could be a turning point for this, if the true cost of adaptation is to be realised.
• The divestment movement will gain more traction and place the carbon bubble under greater strain! Expect to see major investors sit up and move towards renewables.

Climate change

To date science has made great progress in computing and modelling our impacts on our climate. This has not been matched by progress in conveying that message to our leaders, politicians and the skeptical public! Dealing with issues of uncertainty around a more certain trend, has proven a difficult task for scientists, one that needs to be addressed for 2015!

Globally the evidence is mounting, we seem to be experiencing more extreme weather events, with droughts, floods and stronger winds! The problem is however, that there is always something more important; recession, war, famine, planes going missing (no disrespect to those who have lost their lives) etc. Climate change continues to tick away in the background.

2014 is going to be the warmest year on record, one of numerous recent record breaking years! It is possible, perhaps even likely, that 2015 will put them all in the shade! With an albeit, weak El Niño, and evidence the Decade  Oscillation in the N. Pacific, has switched and is now returning heat to the   upper ocean, anything is possible (it's a lot of energy!).

Maybe some freak events will serve to get proper coverage and focus the minds for Paris! Our ultimate survival may depend upon a really positive outcome. Global carbon pricing and a focus on new economics would be my wish, as this would serve to continue the pressure on fossil fuels and help us move away from a carbon based economy.

So my predictions for 2015 are:

• It could be a roller coaster year with extreme events and a clear sign that our climate is on the move again!
• Science and the more informed society may finally get their act together and start to win the politicians and skeptical public over on the important issues of climate change and the need to act now.
• Youth will start to have a greater involvement and influence in our democracies, bringing a more open mind to many issues, including climate change. They will break the mould of traditional politics in 2015', flocking to the newer parties, like the Greens, where they will find a voice.

Waste & resource

Waste and resource are opposite ends of the same sustainability paradigm, the resources that we use to consume and generate growth are finite. Waste is an indicator of how efficiently or not we use them, but with waste comes the potential for pollution and illegal activity.

Whilst much effort and focus has been placed on tackling pollution and crime (maybe with the correct intention), primarily improving resource efficiency should reduce both pollution and opportunity for crime. 2014 saw the emergence of  the term 'circular economy', an element of resource efficiency and one that can be grasped by industry and politicians alike. It is however a double edged sword and will require strong picky leads, in order to operate effectively.

I believe that 2015 will be a difficult but crucial year for the circular economy, with prevarication in the EU and obfuscation at home! Only clear policies, smart regulation and a sensible time line will bring all the threads that are needed together in a way that will deliver a working model. 

Sitting amidships in the waste hierarchy, recycling is currently the largest section, in terms of growth and turnover. It is however, facing a degree of uncertainty going into the New Year, with new regulations, a stalled English recycling rate and low commodity prices! I believe we need to see the same levels of investment in reuse and Eco-design, if we are to archive higher resource efficiency!

What do I think will happen in 2015?

• I think recycling (especially in England, but not exclusively), will face a torrid start to the New Year, with oil prices at a low, transport, conversion and processing of raw materials is comparatively cheap right now! This could lead to over supply and a fall (or crash) in commodity prices, which will impact recycling!
• If we are to be more resource efficient, then low prices may be a blessing, if it helps to drive out low grade material. Whilst new requirements to separate waste for collection, may add initially to this burden, we need high quality recyclate if we are to be resource efficient!
• I also think that 2015 will start to see changes from the traditional industry model of collecting waste mixed and then processing, towards a more bespoke service for producers. Waste will be collected separately and returned for reprocessing and rremanufacture, opening the way for small enterprise and reverse logistics.

This is a small insight into my thinking for the coming year, it will be nothing less than exciting and challenging! I hope that you all find something positive from it and that at the end of the year, we will all be one step closer to a sustainable future!

Best wishes for a happy and safe New Year!

Video blog - Welcome back!

Hi everyone!

I must apologise that I have not posted much recently, it has not been for lack of enthusiasm of topics, so much has happened!

It has been a busy period however, I have found it difficult to find time to write much! Hence my new approach, to venture into the world of the video blog (vlog), in the hope that it will make blogging more efficient and flexible.

To this end, I have created a short welcome video, explaining the subjects that I would like to cover by way of a test. Suggestions are welcome, as I become more confident I hope the quality will improve!

See the video blog here:  http://youtu.be/O3BYi

Mike.

Is hope preventing us from glimpsing a brave new World?

I have been looking at relationships, not the personal kind, but those that can be found between social, economic and environmental theories. This is the stuff of which sustainability is made, in much the same way as sub atomic particles are the building blocks of our universe!

Scanning through my feeds recently, I read two different articles ;one about the failure of capitalism and the other about the perverse nature of hope. I enjoyed both of them, in their own right, it was only later that the connections between them dawned on me and their potential relevance to the raft of issues that face collectively! 

I will briefly summarise what each article was about, to provide background for my thinking. I will also provide links (for as long as they remain live), so that you can also enjoy them in their own right.

The article about the failure of capitalism is by Thomas Pikety a new left of centre economist, who has a book out entitled  Capital in the Twenty-First Century. It has found a wide audience at recent gatherings of economists around the World. In essence he is saying that using data from the last 200 years, he can clearly prove that wealth generation exceeds productive capacity and that this inevitably results in wider and wider inequality of wealth. He posits that this results in an unfair burden to the middle income taxpayers, which in turn leads to degradation of public services,  working conditions and well-being. Left unchecked this could escalate to protectionism and ultimately conflict. More on this can be read here.

The second topic that I wanted to mention was also published in the Economic Journal, but is more about behavioural trends. Following the sad disappearance of flight MH370, there was an awful lot of uncertainty around what happened and where. These voids were filled with messages of hope, both by the media and by the governments involved in the search. Twenty five years of German research suggest that the link between hope and expectation is one that delivers social pressure and that freedom from this repressive fear factor, brings about a release. Hope, if you like, is a major factor in maintaining the status quo or following a business as usual scenario! More on this can be seen here.

I kept coming back to the same point in my head, whichever problem that you look at, whether it be climate change, resource depletion or wealth disparity, hope appears to be the enemy of radical change!

Each issue taken in isolation, comes with its own profession, media perceptions and political baggage. Problems are analysed, debated and reports written , but the clock ticks on and in effect, nothing changes (the rich get richer, the climate warmer and finite resources, ever more stretched). The problem with this cycle of events is that hope is refreshed with each iteration, which in turn maintains the status quo!

The writing is on the wall for capitalism, the mathematics are suggesting that the sell by date is looming large! The political model is becoming ever more dysfunctional and arcane, bearing disproportionately more relevance to those with a vested interest in maintaining that status quo and accretion of wealth! The environment is becoming increasingly degraded and will serve to ramp up the existing social and economic pressures.

It is only when you take all of these things together and fire them at each other, do you realise they represent a perfect storm. I find it difficult to imagine that within in the confines of the current socio-political and economic environment, that we have any hope of finding a workable solution, or a means of transition to new more equitable and sustainable model.

The art of giving up hope here, is not to stop breathing, but instead to take a deep breath and to say OK what now? By giving up hope, you are giving up on continued support and trust for our failing systems and leaders. You will need to let go of concepts about the current norm. This can and will be both frightening and cathartic! Without  going through this barrier of perception however, I do not believe that any of us can find it within ourselves to innovate and be free enough to make the radical changes needed to design and implement a new model.

The evidence is mounting that the climate is warming and that the economic model is failing the vast majority. Beyond this lies a brave new World of connected localism, can we jump the hurdle of hope and land running on the other side?

Is Rome already alight?

On a climate change theme today!

It seems quite incredible to me that governments appear happy to leave the issue of climate warming and sea level rise on the back burner, whilst continuing to exploit fossil fuels at an increasing rate.

I have highlighted a couple articles that sum up the predicament quite clearly, I can't believe that we have all voted to mandate procrastination on such an important issue!

 

First up from 350.org a US map showing 16 cities at serious risk from sea level rise and climate enhanced storm surges.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/waiting-on-new-climate-deal-will-set-world-on-path-to-5c-warming-16100

Even the IEA have spoken out about the current impasse on reaching political agreement for a replacement to Kyoto.

They say that with current trends in energy production and emissions, this puts us on a path to a catastrophic 5^oC rise in global temperatures.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/waiting-on-new-climate-deal-will-set-world-on-path-to-5c-warming-16100

And all this on a day when the Guardian reports that the UK is looking maximise UK North Sea oil production #greenestgovernmentever

There is absolutely no point in growth at all costs if the cost becomes catastrophic climate change!

Quick fire rant!

Today is really cold here!

So I've had a trip out and got back to a nice tea and warmed up. The TV is dire, so it's a great time time for a rant! No long winded diatribe on a single issue, a quick fire, what's in my head instead!!

Let's go nuclear for a minute, if you've read any of my other posts, you will know that I'm not keen. Not without goof reason I would say, especially as they are catching tuna off the West Coast of the US with high levels of radiation, two years after the event!!

And what a bout the power plant in Washington? seems they are losing irradiated cooling fluid from the bottom of the storage tanks!!!! Let's face it, if your car was dropping oil in this day and age, you wouldn't be happy!!

What about our AAA rating here in the UK? Capt. clueless is sailing our economy up iceberg alley for an ideological laugh, oooh I nearly wet myself!!!! When he gets to the top end, does he expect his doting tax payers to buy him a new paddle? By the end of his term, our debt could be 1.3 trillion, which would be significantly more than he inherited from the last administration!!!

Last, but by no means least, scientists have announced that we could be on the brink of a tipping point for the melting of the permafrost. They say that a rise in average temperatures of 1.5 degrees could be enough to start a runaway process that could release millions upon millions of tonnes of methane every year. It is unlikely that in such circumstances that we would any longer, be masters of our own destiny!!

Well I feel better for that, but I haven't worked out quite exactly what I want to can do about it all. Together, we might be able to shout loud enough to get heard, that would be a start!

Sandy, legacy, planning and adaptation.

After a respectable period its a good time to revisit the aftermath of Sandy and raise a few important questions about living on the front line of coastal plains and tidal waterways. When the storm does come and the defences are rendered ineffective, the inevitable happens to the land and infrastructure that supports us.

The storm passes quickly enough and the waters subside in time, but the damage that remains is often persistent, unseen and potentially more lethal than the event itself. A storm surge carries huge power, it picks up what it wants and leaves it where it likes, it has no respect for man nor permit! It can strip back the land, move good from shelves and swamps tanks and drainage systems.

A lot of what we use in our everyday lives, the engine and fuel oils released, the cleansing and disinfection fluids, paints solvents and infection bearing sludges. These are toxic in the wrong environment and when many substances are mixed up and distributed in a diffuse way, they can be difficult to detect and quantify in terms of risk. This is precisely what has happened with Sandy, the water has ingressed the old and ailing infrastructure of New York. Sandy stripped out toxins, leaving them in dense heterogeneous sediments to leach back out in what amounts to a game that has become a cross between hide and seek and Russian roulette!

In time these sediments will give up their chemicals slowly leaching back into streams and rivers and percolating down into the groundwater, where it can enter water supplies. This will impact upon
people and ecosystems and the clean up could prove prohibitively expensive, due to the range and distribution of toxins.

There is no point in being smug that it wasn't you this time around either, all low lying populace areas are becoming increasingly vulnerable. Climate change is accelerating and extreme weather events will increase in frequency raising the risk of a growing legacy of toxic sediments being built up in many locations. This will become a growing cost of climate change, as already discussed, clear up will be very expensive and retro-fit to provide greater protection will be costly too!

As I see it now, however we mitigate (and we will have to), we will have to adopt a lot of new ways to adapt to our changing and increasingly extreme climate. I believe that this require a lot of planning on a large scale and much better integration between aspects of land use in terms of how and where urban populations exist and how they are supported by a hinterland.

More local resilience will be needed, with major infrastructure designed to offer support at a more strategic level (i.e. more decentralised generation, but connected to a simplified grid that offers options on storage). This is an option for renewal but there is no easy solution for what is already in place, it is likely that many location will quickly change from pleasant seaside real estate to deserted liability!